Forecast expenditure medicines hit in the air

Estimates of drug costs may well sit alongside the reality. Researchers at the National Institute of Public Health and Environment found to vary more than 1000% between predictions and outcomes. They conclude that cost estimates consequence no basis for the decision to a drug in the Pharmaceutical compensation to be included.

If a new drug on the market, the College of Health Insurances (CvZ) an estimate of the costs for that product will be made. From 18 drugs that in the years 1999-2003 on the market, were researchers at the National Institute of Public Health and Environment (RIVM) how much money is really being spent in the third year after release. Those actual costs ranged from 1% to 1132% of the estimate. The Pharmaceutical Weekblad Scientific Platform of Friday, November 21 they publish this comparison of estimated costs and actual costs.

The Pharmaceutical Assistance Commission (CFH) of the College of Health Insurances, the estimates as an aid to the Minister of Health to advise on inclusion of the drug in the Pharmaceutical compensation (GVS). These cost estimates are based on consistency expectations of the manufacturer on the use and cost of the new product in the first years after the release. The Pharmaceutical Assistance Commission also takes into account the number of patients that the drug might use and other drugs that thanks to the new means no more need be used.


The actual cost in the third calendar year after preparing cost estimates consequence are from the database of the Cure and tools Information Project (BIP, which is maintained by the College of Health Insurances itself) and reports of the Pharmaceutical Foundation Ratios (SFK). The number of drugs for which the cost estimate consequence cent higher than the cost (with the exception of 1132%) was equal to the number of drugs for which the cost estimate lower consequence (with the exception of 1%). The exceptions are mainly in the estimates of the number of users.
The projected cost of the medicines in the study by the National Institute of Public Health and Environment are involved, ranging from 0.05 million euros to 30 million euros per year. The effect on the drug budget may thus differ per product. The total expenditure for outpatient medicines in 2004 amounted to 3.909 billion euros. All the medicines are reimbursed on the basis of the Pharmaceutical compensation.